Apples and Oranges: Why Comparing McKinley’s Tariffs to Trump’s Strategy Misses the Mark

Know Your History to Invest Wisely in the Future

Apr 04, 2025

Mainstream media pundits, partisan politicians, and celebrity economists love to dunk on Trump’s tariff strategy by claiming it’s just a recycled idea from the McKinley era—a doomed attempt at protectionism that history has already proven ineffective. But this take is not only simplistic—it’s dangerously out of context.

It ignores the radically different economic architecture of the 21st century: the dominance of the U.S. dollar, the complexity of global supply chains, the power of consumer demand, and perhaps most importantly, the emergence of Bitcoin as a strategic financial force capable of complementing and even extending American financial hegemony into the decentralized age.

To claim that Trump’s 2025 tariff policies are destined to fail because McKinley’s didn’t produce an immediate boom is like saying your Tesla will break down because steam engines once overheated. History rhymes, yes—but the tune, instruments, and stage have all changed.

Let’s examine the critical differences between these eras—and why today’s strategy might just lay the groundwork not for stagnation, but for a new era of American-led productivity, innovation, and monetary resilience.

Population and GDP: A Different Universe

During President McKinley’s time (1897–1901), the U.S. population stood at roughly 74 million, and GDP in 1900 was just $19.4 billion, equivalent to about $688 billion today after inflation. The economy was rooted in agriculture and early-stage manufacturing, with steel, railroads, and coal driving output.

In 2024, we live in a radically different world. The U.S. population now exceeds 335 million, and GDP in 2023 reached $27.4 trillion. The nation’s economy is driven by software, biotechnology, AI, advanced manufacturing, and financial markets. We are no longer an industrial upstart—we are the operating system of the global economy.

Tariffs in 1900 targeted foreign competition in basic goods. Today, tariffs are precision tools in a complex geopolitical and economic chess match, targeting adversaries in advanced technology, national security, and digital infrastructure.

Dollar Dominance Then and Now—and Bitcoin’s Emerging Role

In McKinley’s time, the dollar was not even close to being the world’s reserve currency. Global trade settled in British pounds or gold. The U.S. had no monetary influence abroad and limited financial firepower.

Today, the U.S. dollar is the backbone of global finance, underpinning over 88% of all FX transactions and comprising more than 58% of global reserves (IMF). The dollar enables America to borrow cheaply, export inflation, enforce sanctions, and maintain global influence far beyond our borders.

But here’s where it gets even more interesting: Bitcoin is now emerging as a powerful complement—not a competitor—to the dollar.

The recent Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order laid the foundation for a new era of monetary co-existence. The proposed Genius Act (Stablecoin Bill) and Bitcoin Act (formerly known as the Lummis Bill) are set to unlock innovation and solidify Bitcoin’s role as a strategic digital reserve asset alongside the dollar.

This is not a zero-sum game.

If executed well, this dual-asset structure could preserve U.S. dollar hegemony for another 100 years by offering a transparent, decentralized counterbalance to centralized financial systems, while keeping the innovation ecosystem anchored to American legal, political, and regulatory frameworks.

As the centralized world of traditional finance collides with the network state of decentralized crypto ecosystems, the U.S. stands to own both sides of the equation—as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency and as the largest strategic holder (HODLER) of Bitcoin.

Global Trade: From Railroads to Cloud Infrastructure

In 1900, the U.S. economy was based on domestic production and westward expansion. Trade was mostly bilateral, and the country exported raw goods while importing manufactured ones.

Today, America is at the center of multi-nodal global supply chains, where microchips travel across six countries before reaching the consumer. Tariffs under Trump are not simply “protectionist”—they are leverage tools designed to:

Incentivize domestic reshoring in critical sectors
Reduce dependence on adversarial regimes
Rewire supply chains around allies
Protect intellectual property from systemic theft (especially by China)

Trump’s use of tariffs in 2018–2020 was also the first to fully exploit America’s status as the world’s largest consumer economy, responsible for over 28% of global consumption. Export-driven economies like China depend on the U.S. more than we depend on them.

In this context, tariffs become a bargaining chip, not a blunt weapon. They are often temporary, designed to force a renegotiation or create strategic realignments—like the successful replacement of NAFTA with the USMCA.

Technology and IP: The Real Battleground

The McKinley-era economy measured industrial strength in rail miles, steel tonnage, and farm output. In Trump’s strategy, economic power is about:

Semiconductor independence
Quantum computing access
AI model superiority
Rare earth mineral control
Cybersecurity and 5G infrastructure

Tariffs on these sectors protect national innovation, not mere retaliation. They are a firewall against foreign state actors stealing American IP and a moat around the next-generation industries that will define global leadership.

And unlike McKinley’s America, today’s U.S. tech sector is vertically integrated into financial markets. Every innovation cycle feeds into public markets, VC flows, and sovereign wealth strategies.

Bitcoin’s Strategic Utility in This Equation

Here’s where Bitcoin becomes essential.

As the world de-dollarizes on the margin—creating trade pacts and payment rails outside of SWIFT—the U.S. can either fight the trend or control the next layer of trust infrastructure. Bitcoin gives it that option.

By embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, the U.S. can:

Hedge against long-term inflation and debt devaluation
Attract innovation hubs across crypto, AI, and fintech
Anchor stablecoin infrastructure to American legal standards
Create a programmable trust layer for global commerce
Ensure capital flows through both centralized (USD) and decentralized (BTC) rails

The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order is not just symbolic—it’s a play for digital neutrality, offering global market participants a trust anchor that’s outside foreign influence but still regulated and protected under U.S. leadership.

Tariffs Today Are Not Protectionism—They’re Positioning

The old narrative—“Tariffs don’t work; history proved it”—is woefully out of date.

Trump’s current tariff and trade policies are not a repeat of McKinley’s—they are a recalibration of the global order in America’s favor. They are being paired with digital innovation policies, industrial subsidies, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and a rethinking of how monetary trust works in a multipolar world.

And unlike the early 1900s, today’s America has every advantage:

The world’s reserve currency
The largest consumer economy
The most innovative capital markets
A growing Bitcoin reserve infrastructure
A resilient middle class being reshored through AI and domestic manufacturing

The truth is I don’t know any more than you whether this bold and risky move will work as planned, but I do know that it is fear-mongering and irrelevant noise to claim that overly generalized comparisons are a good metric and willfully ignore the converging forces and data at play in the present that support this strategy.

So let’s stop comparing apples and oranges—and start realizing that what we’re watching might just be the opening moves in a new golden age of American productivity—one that integrates traditional finance, national sovereignty, and decentralized digital trust.

Yours in health and Wealth,

~Chris J Snook

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