If the Devil Takes the Hindmost, Who Will the Devil Take in 2025–2030?

Lessons for today's market in speculation, uncertainty, and greed from Edward Chancellor's classic book.

Jun 11, 2025

When I first started my investment and business career in 1999 and knew absolutely nothing and read even less, one of the first books (still in my top 20) I read was The Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor.

“The devil take the hindmost” is an old proverb meaning those who lag behind (financially or otherwise) will be left to suffer the consequences. In markets, it reflects how speculators rush in, hoping not to be the last to exit before the crash.

Chancellor’s book is not a manual for avoiding speculation—it’s a panoramic study of how we, as a species, get swept into the same cycles again and again. Speculative manias, he shows, are not aberrations—they are features of financial history.

“There is nothing new, except what is forgotten.” – Marie Antoinette (quoted in Chancellor’s preface)

The Speculative Cycle: A Framework from History

Chancellor outlines a timeless loop found in every major financial bubble:

Narrative Ignition: A new technology or asset redefines future expectations.
Liquidity Surge: Capital floods in, often fueled by cheap credit and accommodative policy.
Public Participation: Retail investors and media amplify the hype.
Valuation Detachment: Asset prices are separate from fundamentals.
Inevitability of Collapse: The herd panics and exits—some too late.

Each of the book’s historical case studies, from the South Sea Bubble to Japan’s 1980s boom, follows this arc with chilling similarity.

2025–2030: What Echoes from the Past Can Teach Us About What’s Coming

With $400 trillion in global wealth now floating through financial instruments, derivatives, and tokenized abstractions, and $7 trillion sitting in money market accounts (dry powder) ready to deploy, the risk of misallocated capital and delayed consequences is arguably higher than ever. It’s too much capital chasing too few quality deals, and a Fed whose monetary policy tools no longer work (gas and brakes), because as Lyn Alden famously says, when it comes to the present-day reality of fiscal dominance, “Nothing stops this train!”

The key takeaway from Alden’s analysis is this:

When public debt growth outpaces private debt growth, and the Fed raises interest rates, they increase the Federal deficit faster than they slow the growth of private credit growth, so it’s like a runaway train with no breaks, and in recent years (regardless of election outcomes), this is the conundrum and why the Fed (monetary policy) is handcuffed by (fiscal policy dominance) and out of control spending.

Bad Option A: If they keep rates high, they will explode public deficit spending while slowing productivity growth (debt doom loop)

Bad Option B: If they lower interest rates, they will explode speculation into scarce or risk-on assets (bubbles everywhere)

Here’s where the signs point next as the Devil licks his chops.

1. AI Mania: The 2020s Echo of the 1840s Railway Boom

In the 1840s, British investors poured capital into railway companies, promising to revolutionize the economy. Many did. But the vast majority burned capital and collapsed.

In our current cycle, the explosive growth of AI infrastructure—from semiconductors to language model startups—echoes that story.

Today’s warning signs:

Valuations of unprofitable AI startups exceeding $1B+
Retail exposure to mega-cap “AI proxy” stocks (e.g., NVDA)
Corporate AI arms races without clear monetization

Potential Hindmost:
Late-stage investors in thinly differentiated AI tools, over-indexed LPs in AI-only VC funds, and meme-chasers entering near the top.

2. Private Credit: Modern-Day Mississippi Scheme?

Just as John Law’s 18th-century Mississippi Company blurred the lines between equity speculation and sovereign debt obligations, today’s private credit boom is driven by opaque balance sheets and the relentless pursuit of yield.

The big risk: A sharp increase in defaults could cascade through non-bank lenders, especially if credit tightening continues or real estate valuations collapse.

Potential Hindmost:
Unseasoned allocators, retail funds investing in private debt through interval funds, and leveraged buyout structures with covenant-lite terms.

3. Meme Assets & Tokenized Hype: Tulipmania with a GUI

Just as the Dutch tulip craze turned bulbs into lottery tickets, meme coins and celebrity tokens have turned digital clout into speculative capital.

What’s different now?

These assets are global, liquid 24/7, and social-media-fueled
Regulation is still catching up
Retail investors often confuse trend with utility

Potential Hindmost:
Token holders mistaking hype for intrinsic or fundamental value, platforms enabling unsustainable tokenomics, and influencers who overpromise without governance frameworks.

4. Government Debt: South Sea Redux

In the early 1700s, the British government used the South Sea Company to restructure debt under a veil of economic innovation. It imploded.

Now, sovereign debt in the U.S., Japan, and Europe is approaching unsustainable levels, with interest payments crowding out fiscal room. If trust in Fiat begins to falter, the cascade could dwarf past crises.

Potential Hindmost:
Bondholders in long-duration sovereign paper, life insurers, pension funds, and retirees dependent on fiat-denominated assets.

Who Might the Devil Take in 2025–2030?

Here’s a chart that synthesizes the most vulnerable participants based on exposure, opacity, and behavioral excess:

Why Them?

Lessons from Chancellor's Framework for Today’s Investor

Don't Chase Narratives Blindly. The more universally accepted a narrative becomes, the more dangerous it is, especially when liquidity fuels it. Make no mistake that liquidity is coming (see the M2 chart below), and when it does, the melt-up in asset prices will follow as the currency debases.

source: https://streetstats.finance/liquidity/money/

Follow the Credit, Not Just the Tech. Almost every major collapse began with easy money and ended with credit tightening.
Beware the Crowd. When your Uber driver gives you AI stock tips or a podcast suggests flipping meme tokens, it’s probably late in the cycle.
Remember That All Bubbles Are Rational—Until They Aren’t. And in the present-day case, when EVERYTHING is in a bubble, we are in uncharted territory, but they still always pop.

Avoiding the Hindmost Position

You don’t have to time the top. But you must avoid being last.
Being first into a hype cycle is a dangerous move. Being last out of one? Financially fatal.

Edward Chancellor’s timeless warning is that speculative behavior is not a bug in capitalism—it is an endemic feature of human psychology under uncertainty and greed.

As we navigate 2025–2030, the devil may not take everyone, but he’ll certainly take the most distracted, overleveraged, complacent, and misinformed.

Stay healthy, wealthy, and awake.

~Chris J Snook

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