What If? A Trilateral Denuclearization Pact and Saudi Arabia’s Rise as a Global Power Broker
Reflections from My 3rd Annual FII Priority in Miami
Attending the 3rd Annual FII Priority Summit in Miami provided a profound lens into the evolving role of Saudi Arabia in the global economy. The discussions underscored the Kingdom's accelerating ambitions in energy transition, logistics, and investment diplomacy. With Vision 2030 steadily advancing, it is increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a key player in bridging geopolitical divides, and in my humble opinion, may be uniquely qualified to be.
These in-person collisions last week in Miami and the undeniable vibe of “positive collaboration” and other insights led me to explore a hypothetical yet plausible next-world order scenario on my flight home and recovery day:
What if the U.S., Russia, and China agreed to a trilateral denuclearization pact that included cooperation on rare earth minerals?
Could Saudi Arabia emerge as the neutral intermediary that reshapes global power dynamics?
Below is a purely speculative analysis of the economic and geopolitical ripple effects of such an agreement.
The Hypothetical Framework
A U.S.-Russia-China trilateral denuclearization agreement reducing nuclear arsenals by 50% and integrating rare earth mineral cooperation would reshape global power dynamics. Saudi Arabia, leveraging its $2.5 trillion untapped mineral reserves and logistics infrastructure, could emerge as a neutral intermediary, bridging East-West divides while advancing its Vision 2030 goals. Below is a speculative analysis of the economic and geopolitical ripple effects.
1. Economic Realignment: Defense Cuts and Resource Shifts
Defense Budget Reductions: A 50% cut in nuclear arms spending by the U.S., Russia, and China would free trillions for civilian sectors. Funds could be redirected to critical minerals mining (lithium, copper, rare earth minerals) and green energy infrastructure, aligning with Saudi’s push to become a mineral processing hub.
Rare Earth Diversification: Saudi’s partnerships with firms like Hastings Technology Metals (Australia) and ElementUSA to extract lithium from oilfield brine could reduce reliance on China’s processing dominance. This would bolster supply chain resilience, a key goal of the trilateral agreement.
Logistics Expansion: Saudi’s 59 logistics centers (e.g., Oxagon port at NEOM) and streamlined customs via the Fasah platform could position it as a transit hub for minerals and energy exports, linking Asia, Europe, and Africa.
2. Saudi Arabia’s Dual Role: Neutral Mediator and Economic Powerhouse
Neutral Intermediary: Saudi’s non-aligned stance (e.g., partnerships with the U.S., Russia, and China) allows it to facilitate trilateral dialogue without favoring blocs. Its $182 million incentive program for mineral exploration and joint ventures (e.g., UK-Saudi critical minerals deal) exemplifies its role in bridging supply chain gaps.
Mining and Energy Transition: By 2035, Saudi aims for $75 billion in mining GDP, targeting lithium, copper, and rare earths. This aligns with global demand for EVs and renewables, positioning the Kingdom as a one-stop-shop for energy transition minerals.
Geopolitical Leverage: Saudi’s hydrogen and renewable energy projects could attract investments from all three nuclear powers, reducing their dependency on adversarial states (e.g., China’s rare earth dominance).
3. Global Power Centers: Winners and Losers
4. Challenges and Risks
Verification Gaps: Ensuring compliance with nuclear reductions and mineral-sharing terms would require robust monitoring—a hurdle given historical distrust (e.g., U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan).
China’s Resistance: Beijing’s dominance in rare earth processing and its’ cautious support for Russia[4] could stall trilateral cooperation. Saudi’s success hinges on accelerating its’ own refining capabilities.
Geopolitical Friction: Saudi’s balancing act between the U.S., Russia, and China risks backlash if perceived as favoring one bloc (e.g., U.S.-China trade wars).
5. A New World Order?
A trilateral agreement with Saudi as a neutral hub would:
Decentralize Power: Shift influence from nuclear-armed states to resource-rich nations like Saudi and Australia.
Reshape Alliances: Europe might pivot toward Saudi’s logistics networks, while the Global South gains access to mineral wealth and infrastructure funding.
Accelerate Energy Transition: Saudi’s lithium and rare earth supplies could fast-track EV adoption, reducing fossil fuel dependencies.
Yet, the path is fraught with verification hurdles, China’s strategic ambiguity, and Saudi’s unproven downstream capabilities. If successful, it would redefine global power centers, elevating resource security over military might.
Sources:
[1] VOA News: Trump Support for Denuclearization Talks with Russia & China
[2] Saudi Market Research: Strategic Investments in Saudi's Untapped Minerals
[3] Trade.gov: Saudi Arabia Logistics Master Plan
[4] Carnegie Endowment: China-Iran-North Korea-Russia Cooperation
[5] Supply Chain Brain: Saudi-UK Critical Minerals Deal
[6] Business Chief: Saudi Logistics Hub Ambitions
[7] AP News: Trump, China & Russia Nuclear Talks
[8] Farmonaut: Saudi Critical Minerals Strategy
[9] Arab News: Saudi Arabia’s Economic Diversification